Social media sentiments and public discourse on Iran's territorial claims over the Three Islands

Shahghasemi, Ehsan; Auter, Philip J.; Gheisi, Leila

doi:10.22059/jcountst.2025.403366.1372

Social media sentiments and public discourse on Iran's territorial claims over the Three Islands

Document Type : Original

Authors

¹ Department of Communication, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

² Department of Communication, University of Louisiana, Lafayette, USA.

10.22059/jcountst.2025.403366.1372

Abstract

This study examines the resurgence of public discourse surrounding Iran's territorial claims over the islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa in the Persian Gulf. Iran claims historical and legal sovereignty, while the United Arab Emirates, supported by the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council and the European Union, calls for international arbitration or negotiated resolution. Triggered by a joint statement from the European Union and Persian Gulf Cooperation Council in October 2024, this research utilized 3,127 unique Persian-language posts from X to analyze public sentiment and thematic trends. A combination of natural language processing tools, including sentiment analysis and clustering techniques, revealed nuanced emotional and thematic patterns. Key findings include balanced sentiment distributions and eight distinct thematic clusters, highlighting discussions on historical claims, critiques of foreign interventions, and geopolitical tensions. Innovative visualizations, such as sentiment-based keyword clouds and heatmaps, elucidate the complexities of public reactions. This analysis reveals the intertwined narratives of sovereignty, identity, and geopolitics in shaping Iranian public opinion, that will have immense effect on political forces that try to shape global perceptions about the issue of The Triple Islands. Our analysis bridges gaps in digital nationalism studies by providing the first empirical NLP examination of post-2024 reactions, revealing how online narratives reinforce identity amid isolation.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Politics

حوزة موضوعی: جزایر سه‌گانة خلیج‌فارس

Scope: The Triple Islands in the Persian Gulf

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