Journal of Countries Studies

Journal of Countries Studies

Technology costs, renewable energy development, innovation, and CO₂ emissions in Central Asia and the South Caucasus

Document Type : Original

Authors
Amir Mohammad Esmaeili Korani 1
Otabek Kasimov 1
Mirzohidjon Mukhammadaliyev 2
Qazikhan Musakhanov 3
1 Department of International Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary.
2 Department of Economics and Real Estate, Tashkent University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
3 Department of Tourism and Hotel Business, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
10.22059/jcountst.2026.414264.1529
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between technology costs, renewable energy generation, research and development (R&D), and CO₂ emissions in eight Central Asian and South Caucasus countries spanning 2000–2024 across 200 balanced panel observations. To analyze this panel data, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Pooled Mean Group (ARDL-PMG) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) models were employed incorporating a composite index for technology costs (constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for solar and wind technologies cost), renewable electricity generation, R&D expenditure, trade openness, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and urbanization. Before drawing conclusions, comprehensive diagnostics were conducted, including panel unit root tests, cointegration assessments, and multiple evaluations for cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation, and heteroskedasticity to validate the robustness of the model. The technology cost index shows a significant and positive impact, suggesting that lower renewable technology costs are associated with reduced emissions. Renewable electricity generation demonstrates a substantial negative long-term impact on CO₂ emissions, thereby supporting the displacement hypothesis. Similarly, R&D expenditure reduces CO₂ emissions. Overall, this work demonstrates that increasing renewable energy deployment and continuing to see technology cost reductions are effective policy instruments for mitigating emissions in these transitional economies. To effectively reduce CO₂ emissions, policies promoting renewable energy expansion, trade diversification, and technological innovation are needed.
Keywords
ARDL-PMG
Central Asia
CO₂ emissions
FMOLS
renewable energy
South Caucasus
technology costs
Subjects

Scope: Central Asia and the South Caucasus

حوزة موضوعی: آسیای مرکزی و جنوب قفقاز

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Journal of Countries Studies
Volume 5, Issue 2
in English with Persian Abstract
2027
Pages 371-397

  • Receive Date 12 May 2026
  • Revise Date 12 June 2026
  • Accept Date 20 June 2026
  • First Publish Date 14 July 2026
  • Publish Date 23 August 2027