Economic security through trade policy: A multi-indicator framework for regional economic blocs in Greater Eurasia

Surkova, Arina A.

doi:10.22059/jcountst.2026.416411.1565

Economic security through trade policy: A multi-indicator framework for regional economic blocs in Greater Eurasia

Document Type : Original

Author

Arina A. Surkova

Department of International Economic Relations, Faculty of Economics, RUDN University (Peoples Friendship University of Russia), Moscow, Russia.

10.22059/jcountst.2026.416411.1565

Abstract

External trade policy has become a core pillar of economic security as sanctions diffusion, tariff escalation, and competition for critical inputs turn interdependence into a channel of pressure as well as efficiency. Yet economic-security research remains largely state-centred and offers limited tools for evaluating security-relevant trade governance in regional integration blocs. This article addresses this gap by developing a multi-indicator framework that links trade-policy instruments to security-relevant vulnerabilities. The framework is structured around five dimensions: position in international trade, trade structure and quality, defensive performance, expansionary performance, and regime sustainability and transparency. Using the case of Eurasian Economic Union, the study draws on international trade databases and policy-monitoring sources to operationalise the framework for 2020–2023. The findings show that the EAEU combines relatively high openness and strategic-resource weight with a post-2021 increase in the geographic concentration of both exports and, especially, import sourcing, alongside a persistent technology-light export profile. The Union’s expansionary toolkit also exhibits an implementation gap: negotiation activity intensifies, but preferential trade coverage remains marginal and the bloc’s “dependence footprint” in third markets contracts. Governance indicators suggest that elevated trade policy uncertainty and incomplete unity of member positions constrain the credibility of a common external vector. The article contributes a measurement approach that integrates exposure with governance capacity, produces a diagnostic map of trade-related security risks, and outlines implementation-oriented directions for designing security-centred external trade agendas focused on trade-cost reduction, corridor resilience, usable preferences, and monitoring applicable to Greater Eurasia and beyond.

Keywords

preferential trade strategy

trade policy

trade threats

weaponization of trade interdependence

Subjects

Economics

Scope: Greater Eurasia

حوزة موضوعی: اوراسیای بزرگ

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