Future scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran's foreign policy towards the Palestinian issue in the horizon of 2035

Document Type : Original

Authors

Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University (ATU), Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The main objective of the present study is to explain the key drivers affecting Iran’s foreign policy towards Palestine and the scenarios related to these relations. Meanwhile, the Palestinian issue has become an identity-building and institutional factor at the center of the foreign policy discourse of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Considering the persistence of this issue as a structural crisis in the Middle East, the dependence of Iranian policy on it, and the dynamic changes in the regional and international environment, analyzing the future of this policy is of scientific necessity. The basic question in the following article is formulated as follows: What are the most important drivers and uncertainties affecting the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the Palestinian issue in the next ten years? Due to its exploratory nature, this study lacks an initial hypothesis. The method used in this study is GBN scenario-based planning or critical uncertainties. The data collection method is qualitative and uses interviews, expert panels, and Delphi surveys. Also, Miqmac and Scenario Wizard software were used to analyze the data. The research findings show that based on the software output, out of 23 selected variables, 5 variables are in the influential variables group, 5 variables are identified in the bimodal variables group (1 risk variable, 4 variables as target variables), 4 variables are in the influenced variables group, and 9 variables are in the independent variables group. Based on the research findings, the two drivers of "Iran's regional influence" and "building a coalition against the axis of resistance" are selected as the main axes with the highest uncertainty, and four possible scenarios of "stabilization of hegemony", "balance of power", "decline of influence", and "systemic shock" can be drawn.

Keywords

Main Subjects

حوزة موضوعی: ایران در قبال فلسطین

Scope: Iran and Palestine

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Journal of Countries Studies
Volume 4, Issue 3
Special Issue of Israel Confrontation approach with the World
2026
Pages 633-667

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History

  • Receive Date: 05 November 2025
  • Revise Date: 27 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 02 December 2025
  • First Publish Date: 08 December 2025
  • Publish Date: 22 November 2026

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