The reality of Dubai's property price index and a look at the foreseeable future

Hakki, Adnan

doi:10.22059/jcountst.2025.405640.1392

The reality of Dubai's property price index and a look at the foreseeable future

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original

Author

Adnan Hakki

Department of Mathematics, Financial University, Moscow, Russia.

10.22059/jcountst.2025.405640.1392

Abstract

The real estate market serves as an important indicator of economic health, reflecting the complex interaction of numerous factors. The study provides a detailed assessment of the real estate sector in the United Arab Emirates, with a particular focus on the Dubai market. Using price data from 2012 to 2024 compared to a base index of 1.00 (equivalent to AED 934,524 for apartments and AED 1,646,567 for villas), the results show a steady upward trend in value. This growth will peak in 2024, when the index will reach 1.58 for apartments and 1.43 for villas. The study uses the Orange-ARIMA forecasting model, according to which the period of market stability will continue until 2028. At this stage, a slight correction is expected, with the forecast indices stabilizing at 1.57 for apartments and 1.37 for villas. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the apartment price index fell to a low of 0.99 in the second quarter of 2021, while the villa price index reached its lowest point in the first quarter of 2020, recording 0.99. The research confirms that the Dubai real estate market has remarkable resilience and great potential for sustainable growth. This stability is underpinned by solid economic fundamentals and a predictable political environment. Key drivers include the increasing adoption of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, which enhances operational efficiency and market transparency. All these factors together reinforce Dubai's unique and leading position as a safe and advanced investment center in the region.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Economics

حوزة موضوعی: دبی

Scope: Dubai

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