مطالعات کشورها

مطالعات کشورها

رهنامة خودمختاری راهبردی هند در شرایط گسترش شرقی ناتو و مناقشة اوکراین

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، مؤسسة علم و فناوری SRM (یادمان سری راماسوامی)، راماپورام، چنای، 600089، تامیل نادو، هند.
2 گروه مطالعات مدیریت، کالج مهندسی والیامای SRM کاتانکولاتور، چنای، 603203، تامیل نادو، هند.
3 گروه علوم و مهندسی کامپیوتر، بنیاد آموزشی کونرو لاکشمایا، وادسوارام، 522502، آندرا پرادش، هند.
4 گروه مطالعات مدیریت، پردیس دانشگاه آنا، تیروچیراپالی، 620024، تامیل نادو، هند.
5 مرکز تحقیقات علمی کاربردی حورانی، دانشگاه الاهلیه امان، امان، 19328، اردن.
6 کالج مهندسی ساویتا، ناندلام، چنای، تامیل نادو، هند.
7 گروه علوم و مهندسی کامپیوتر، کالج مهندسی ارود سنگانتارا، ارود، 638057، تامیل نادو، هند.
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش بررسی واکنش هند به وضعیت شکل‌گرفته میان روسیه و اوکراین در بستر گسترش حضور ناتو به‌سمت شرق بوده است. هند تصمیم گرفته است، ضمن حفظ مسیر‌های ارتباطی با مسکو و کی‌یف، از اعمال تحریم‌های غرب علیه روسیه اجتناب کند. بر اساس استدلال مطرح در این پژوهش، عبارت «پوشش‌دهی راهبردی محدودشده از نظر مادی» مناسب‌ترین تعبیر برای توصیف این رفتار است. از این منظر، هند می‌کوشید با محدودکردن مخاطرات در چارچوب محدودیت‌های مادی که احتمال رفع آن در آیندة نزدیک اندک بود، از خودمختاری راهبردی خود صیانت کند. از منظر روش‌شناسی، این پژوهش طرح کیفی تک‌موردی تودرتو محسوب می‌شود. در تحلیل، از روش‌شناسی ردیابی فرایند در آزمون نظریه‌ها و پیگیری پیامدهای آن استفاده شد. با این روش، تبیین بر مبنای محدودیت‌های مادی در برابر دو تبیین رقیب، یعنی دیدگاه میراث ایده‌ای و دیدگاه فرصت‌های تجاری، بررسی شد تا مشخص شود آیا تصمیم هند دربارة اعمال تحریم‌ها تحت تأثیر محدودیت‌های دفاعی، انرژی یا ژئوپلیتیکی است؟ تحلیل پژوهش بر بیانیه‌های دولتی، داده‌های مربوط به آرای هند در سازمان ملل متحد، آمار واردات انرژی و انتقال تسلیحات، انتشارات دانشگاهی و ارزیابی‌های عینی سیاستی استوار است. بااین‌حال، شواهد بیشتر مؤید تبیین مبتنی‌بر محدودیت‌های مادی است. شواهد حمایت مستقیم از دو عامل آسیب‌پذیری دفاعی و مواجهه با هزینه‌های انرژی را نشان داد، اما حمایت از عامل ژئوپلیتیکی مرتبط با چین تنها مشروط است. بخش‌های مهمی از الگوی تجربی بررسی‌شده با نظریه‌های رقیب نیز تبیین‌پذیر است؛ بااین‌حال، با این نظریه‌ها به‌تنهایی نمی‌توان تصمیم گسترده‌تر هند را توجیه کرد. به نظر می‌رسد هند، به‌جای اتخاذ موضعی بی‌طرفانه یا هم‌سویی با روسیه، از طریق چندهم‌سویی در صدد پوشش خطرها و حفظ گزینه‌های راهبردی خود بوده است. بر اساس استدلال مطرح در این مقاله، هند از خودمختاری راهبردی محدود اما کارکردی برخوردار است. بقای بلندمدت این کشور بر سه ستون اصلی استوار است: کاهش آسیب‌پذیری در حوزه‌های دفاعی و انرژی؛ تقویت ظرفیت‌های داخلی؛ و مقابله با فشارهای اقتصادی و ژئوپلیتیکی خارجی. بحران اوکراین نشان داد خودمختاری راهبردی کشور، در نهایت به مانورپذیری دیپلماتیکی و توان‌مندی‌های مادی زیربنایی آن بستگی دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

حوزة موضوعی: هند، روسیه، اوکراین، ناتو

Scope: India, Russia, Ukraine, NATO

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