تأثیر جنگ اوکراین بر امنیت غذایی جهانی بر اساس مدل تحلیل راهبردی پِست

نیکنامی, رکسانا

doi:10.22059/jcountst.2023.365682.1066

تأثیر جنگ اوکراین بر امنیت غذایی جهانی بر اساس مدل تحلیل راهبردی پِست

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده

رکسانا نیکنامی

گروه مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jcountst.2023.365682.1066

چکیده

پس از بحران مالی سال 2008م، موضوع امنیت غذایی به یکی از دستورکارهای اصلی امنیتی کشورهای جهان تبدیل شد. سه عنصر تغییر اقلیم، همه‌گیری کووید-19 و منازعات مسلحانه دلایل اصلی دامن‌زدن به این بحران قلمداد می‌شود. منازعه‌های مسلحانه، به‌لحاظ تاریخی، همواره بر ناامنی غذایی داخل کشورها مؤثر بوده است‌؛ بااین‌حال، تهاجم روسیه به اوکراین در 2022م سبب شد ناامنی غذایی در بستر جهانی تسری یابد. درواقع، با توجه به میراث شوم بحران مالی ناشی از همه‌گیری و بدترشدن وضعیت تغییر اقلیم، زمان‌بندی این جنگ به‌گونه‌ای است که امنیت غذایی را به بحرانی تمام‌عیار تبدیل کرده است. با توجه به این توضیح، هدف در مقالة حاضر پاسخ به این پرسش است که جنگ اوکراین چگونه در عرصة جهانی به بحران امنیت غذایی دامن زده است؟ در پاسخ می‌توان این فرضیه را طرح کرد که جنگ اوکراین با ایجاد ناامنی در دسترسی به غذا، در دسترس‌بودن غذا، استفاده از غذا و تداوم زنجیرة عرضه به بروز بحرانی جهانی در این حوزه منجر شده است. برای آزمون این فرضیه، از روش تحلیل راهبردی پِست بهره گرفته ‌شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که جنگ اوکراین به‌طور مستقیم (تأثیر بر توزیع غذا، آوارگی مردم، کمبود نیروی کار کشاورزی، تبدیل غذا به سلاح و افزایش قیمت‌ها) از یک‌سو و غیرمستقیم (افزایش قیمت نهاده‌ها شامل کود و انرژی) بحران امنیت غذایی جهانی را تشدید کرده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

روابط بین‌الملل

حوزة موضوعی: جنگ روسیه و اوکراین

Scope: Russo-Ukraine War

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