امنیت انرژی، نظام جهانی، و معمای امنیت مارپیچی جرویس؛ مطالعة موردی: جنگ روسیه و اوکراین

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه سیستم‌های انرژی، دانشکدة مهندسی انرژی، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

تصمیم‌گیری‌های سیاسی و اقدام در سطح بین‌المللی با بهره‌مندی از سازوکارهای روان‌شناختی پیچیده، ادراک‌ها، و سوءادراک‌هایی شکل می‌گیرد و پیش‌بینی خروجی اقدام‌های سیاسی و اجتماعی دشوار می‌شود. در این پژوهش، با استفاده از معمای امنیت یا مدل مارپیچی رابرت جرویس، به‌دنبال آن هستیم که دریابیم در روابط بین‌الملل و روان‌شناسی سیاسی، آیا اقدام‌های دولت در جهت افزایش امنیت خود با ایجاد سوءادراک به‌منزلة تهدید، به اتخاذ اقدام‌های امنیتی در دولت دیگر منجر می‌شود. چنین چرخة عمل و عکس‌العملی ممکن است باعث شود تنش، تشدید آن، و پدیدآمدن منازعات متعدد میان طرفین بروز یابد. نقش انرژی‌ـ به‌مثابة یکی از محرک‌های اصلی اقتصاد، جامعه، و روابط متقابل آن با امنیت ملی کشورها و مسائل ژئوپلیتیکی‌ـ موجب می‌شود تا دولت‌ها به امنیت انرژی، به‌عنوان یکی از صورت‌های گوناگون امنیت، توجه ویژه‌ای داشته باشند. در این پژوهش تلاش شده است چگونگی پیوند میان مقولة امنیت انرژی با معمای امنیت، به‌خصوص با توجه به تنظیم‌کننده‌های معمای امنیت از منظر جرویس (عوامل فیزیکی‌ـ‌‌مادی و عوامل روان‌شناسی‌ـ‌ادراکی)، با هدف کشورشناسی و مطالعة موردی روسیه و اوکراین بررسی شود. در راستای عوامل فیزیکی‌ـ‌مادی معمای امنیت، نقش انرژی و سیستم‌های انرژی در جایی بررسی شده است که در معرض تهدیدهای امنیتی قرار می‌گیرد یا خود عامل ایجاد ناامنی است. همچنین، در زمینة عوامل روان‌شناسی‌ـ‌‌ادراکی، ظرفیت‌های امنیت انرژی در ایجاد سوءادراک و منشأهای گوناگون آن بررسی شده است. در نهایت نیز با مفهوم‌سازی «معمای امنیت انرژی مارپیچی»، زمینه‌های همکاری در سایة معمای امنیت و چالش‌های امنیت انرژی واکاوی شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

حوزة موضوعی: جنگ روسیه و اوکراین

Scope: Russo-Ukraine War

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مطالعات کشورها
دوره 1، شماره 4
شماره ویژه جنگ روسیه و اوکراین
1402
صفحه 515-556

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 20 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 09 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 10 تیر 1402

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